The State of Germany’s Forests in 2026: Why the Forest Looks Green and Is Still Damaged

Anyone travelling through the country in summer sees green. Anyone reading the forest condition data sees stress. Anyone who saw the images from the Hürtgen Forest in August 2026 saw fire.

All three images belong together.

In North Rhine Westphalia alone, 36 forest fires affecting around 330 hectares had been recorded by mid August. At least 200 hectares burned in the Hürtgen Forest. According to the information available at the time, it was probably the largest forest fire in the history of the state.

Such fires are spectacular. They are frightening and reveal the vulnerability of the forest, and also our own.

But the forest crisis does not begin only when trees start to burn. The condition of a forest is determined much earlier. In its crowns. In its growth. In the water stored in its soils. In its age structure. And in the question of how many more dry summers a forest stand can withstand.

The forest has stabilised. That does not mean it is healthy.

Forestry experts assess the condition of forests every year partly by examining tree crowns. They estimate how many leaves or needles are missing compared with a fully foliated crown.

The method distinguishes between several levels. Up to 10 per cent crown thinning is considered no visible thinning. Between 11 and 25 per cent is classified as a warning level. From 26 per cent onwards, experts speak of significant crown thinning, and from 61 per cent of severe thinning. At 100 per cent, the tree is dead.

There is not yet a complete nationwide assessment of forest conditions for 2026. The survey takes place during the summer. The latest completed data come from 2025 and were published in May 2026.

The findings are uncomfortable.

Only around one in five trees examined had a crown without recognisable thinning.

Conditions improved somewhat for spruce and beech. They worsened for pine. Oak remains particularly critical. Around 51 per cent of the oak trees examined showed significant crown thinning.

The word stabilisation can therefore be misleading.

If a patient stabilises in a poor condition, that does not mean the patient is healthy. The same applies to the forest.

The deterioration has slowed in some areas. The overall level remains problematic.

Visible damage convinces politics to act. Forests work differently.

Dead spruce areas attract attention. A forest fire produces television images. A 16 per cent decline in timber growth does not.

Yet that figure is important.

According to Germany’s Fourth National Forest Inventory, the country’s forests are still growing. Annual timber growth, however, was around 101.5 million cubic metres, approximately 16 per cent below the comparable figure from the previous inventory.

Disturbance related damage was identified across approximately two million hectares.

The problem is therefore larger than the familiar areas of visible damage.

A tree can still be standing and be weakened.

A forest stand can be green and grow less.

A forest can continue to supply timber while simultaneously losing resilience.

If forest policy measures damage only in hectares already lost, it measures too late.

Forest fires begin with water

The summer of 2026 showed how quickly conditions can deteriorate at a regional level.

In July, the Forest Research Institute of Baden Württemberg reported significant drought stress among spruce and fir trees. At one monitored site, soil water conditions were temporarily more severe than they had been in July 2018.

Reports from North Rhine Westphalia described dried out forest soils, dry streams and trees changing colour unusually early.

Then came the fires.

This is politically relevant.

Germany can invest billions in reforestation. But if forests lose water, the risks still increase.

That is why the debate can no longer focus solely on tree species.

Forest policy is also water policy.

It concerns soils, drainage, water retention, forest structure and the question of which forest stands can survive longer periods of drought.

The 2026 Climate Action Programme addresses this issue. Alongside the transformation of vulnerable forest stands, it explicitly includes measures to retain water, such as reversing drainage ditches.

This is more than landscape management.

It is adaptation policy.

Today’s forest was created for a different climate

Germany still has around 11.5 million hectares of forest and approximately 3.7 billion cubic metres of timber stock.

That sounds reassuring.

But the decisive question is not how much forest exists today.

The question is how much of it will be able to cope with the climate of the coming decades.

Many forest stands developed under different conditions of temperature and precipitation.

Trees growing today may still have to survive in 2050, 2070 or even later.

Forest policy therefore becomes policy under uncertainty.

Which species should be planted?

How strongly should people intervene?

How much natural regeneration should be allowed?

Which forest stands should be used?

Which should be left to develop largely on their own?

Anyone promising simple answers underestimates the complexity of the issue.

There is good news too. But it does not solve the problem.

In 2025, Germany’s forests once again became a carbon sink.

According to preliminary data, they absorbed around 19.3 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents more than they released.

That represents a significant change compared with the National Forest Inventory period from 2017 to 2022. During that period, forests lost around 41.5 million tonnes of carbon from their stocks and temporarily became a source of emissions themselves.

This is genuinely good news.

But it is not a certificate of good health.

A forest can absorb CO₂ while simultaneously suffering from drought stress.

It can store carbon while remaining vulnerable to fire.

It can grow while still growing less than it once did.

The political debate

There is more agreement on the basic diagnosis than the political debate might suggest.

The Federal Government, the forestry sector, researchers and large parts of the environmental movement all want forests that are more resilient, more diverse in species and richer in structure.

More mixed forests, better water management and adaptation to climate change are broadly accepted goals.

The path towards them, however, remains open to debate.

Federal Agriculture Minister Alois Rainer explicitly connects forest protection with forest use. The Federal Government is focusing on sustainable management, climate resilient mixed forests and forestry businesses that remain economically viable.

Parts of the forestry sector are calling for more active management, forest transformation and risk management.

Environmental organisations place greater emphasis on natural regeneration, old forests, deadwood and areas without commercial use.

In March 2026, Germany’s federal states argued at the Conference of Agriculture Ministers over whether state supported measures that remove forest areas from use should be reduced.

No common decision was reached.

The central political question for the coming years therefore remains unanswered:

Will forests become more resilient if we manage them more actively, or if we allow them greater freedom to develop naturally in suitable locations?

The EU is forcing Germany to make a decision

By 1 September 2026, Germany must submit its draft National Restoration Plan to the European Commission.

Forest ecosystems, biodiversity and measurable improvements are also part of this process.

Forestry associations are calling for flexible targets and warning against requirements that could make forest transformation and management more difficult.

Environmental organisations consider some of the current approaches too weak and are calling for more binding ecological improvements.

Both sides speak about resilient forests.

They do not always mean the same kind of forest.

That is precisely why the question of forest health becomes political.

Whoever determines how a healthy forest is measured also influences which measures are funded, permitted or restricted.

So what is a healthy forest?

Not a forest without dead trees.

Not a forest without bark beetles.

Not a forest without fire.

Not a forest that produces the maximum possible amount of timber every year.

A healthy forest must be able to withstand disturbances.

It needs sufficient water, different species and structures, regeneration, functioning soils, habitats and growth.

Above all, it needs enough capacity to adapt to conditions that cannot yet be predicted precisely.

Germany does not simply need to preserve forest.

Germany must decide what kind of forest it wants to preserve.

Germany’s forests in 2026 are not lost.

But they are not healthy simply because individual indicators have improved.

Germany’s forests are losing reserves while we continue to debate how their resilience can be restored.

Sources

Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Regional Identity, BMLEH, 2026.
Results of the 2025 Forest Condition Survey.
https://www.bmleh.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/waldzustandserhebung-2025.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4

Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, 2026.
Forest Condition Survey.
https://blumwald.thuenen.de/wze

Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Regional Identity / National Forest Inventory, 2024.
Fourth National Forest Inventory 2022: Summary.
https://www.bundeswaldinventur.de/vierte-bundeswaldinventur-2022/zusammenfassung

Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Regional Identity / National Forest Inventory, 2024.
Fourth National Forest Inventory 2022: Forests as Climate Protectors.
https://www.bundeswaldinventur.de/vierte-bundeswaldinventur-2022/klimaschuetzer-wald

German Environment Agency, UBA, 2026.
Greenhouse gas data show: climate action needs new momentum.
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/treibhausgasdaten-zeigen-klimaschutz-braucht-neuen

Forest Research Institute of Baden Württemberg, FVA, 2026.
Bark Beetle South West. Newsletter of 16 July 2026.
https://www.fva-bw.de/fileadmin/publikationen/ws_bk/2026/fva-newsletter_borkenkaefer_suedwest_16_07_2026.pdf

Ministry of Agriculture and Consumer Protection of the State of North Rhine Westphalia, 2026.
Acute forest fire situation in the Hürtgen Forest.
https://www.mlv.nrw.de/akute-waldbrand-lage-im-huertgenwald/

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